The level of optimism in the New Patriotic Party (NPP) appears to be very high with the more than 80 per cent endorsement of Nana Akufo-Addo at the special congress of the party.

The indication is that the vast majority of party office holders believe that Nana Akufo-Addo can win the presidential elections slated for December 7, 2016.

Nana is still not the official presidential candidate of the NPP for the 2016 elections. He may be confirmed by the party’s full congress in October this year.

The main reason for the optimism in the NPP appears to be the state of the national economy.

Over the last two years the national currency – the cedi – has lost significant value and the rate of inflation has moved from a single digit to about 14 per cent.

Ghana has also experienced significant power outages as a result of under production due largely to a shortage of gas, the indebtedness of the power generation companies and out-moded equipment.

The power outages would automatically translate into a defeat of the NDC in the 2016 general elections.

Interestingly, there is general jubilation within the NDC over endorsement of Nana Akufo-Addo by the Special Congress of the NPP.

The NDC believes that Nana is easier to beat on account of the supposition that he cannot unite the NPP for the task ahead.

Nana is also seen as a much easier target for a smear campaign.

Inside the NDC, there is also a strong feeling of hope that the Mahama administration will manage to resolve some of the problems confronting the country within the next two years.

Already the power and water supply situation have improved significantly, and there are very strong indications that there could be more improvements in several sectors of the economy.

The Obama administration has already earmarked close to US$500 million for improvements in the power sector. Many countries including Iran are also offering assistance to improve the water supply situation in the country.

Currently, Mr. Seth Terkper, the Minister of Finance is on a road show” to raise funds which will shore up the cedi and revamp local industry.

Many campaign promises are also being fulfilled.

In the central Region, the Mahama administration has commissioned a sugar factory to provide a substitute for imported sugar and employment for people in Cape Coast, Elmina, Komenda and surrounding areas.

Currently, about 100 of the 200 schools promised in the campaign for the 2012 elections are under construction and in the health sector the rehabilitation of several hospitals including Ridge and the construction of chip compounds are on-going.

The feeling that economic hardship would automatically translate into victory for the NPP and Nana Akufo-Addo in 2016 can only be the result of pedestrian analysis.

There are several “constituencies” which will continue to vote for the NDC or the NPP in spite of the state of the national economy.

Factors which may influence voting may include the personality of candidates, social identification, perceived and real political biases, cultural orientation and many imponderables.