Accra, Aug. 02, GNA - Scientists say there is a possibility of an avian influenza (bird flu) outbreak next year, given that influenza pandemics occur approximately every 40 to 50 years and this year is the 39th year since the last pandemic occurred.

Dr Kofi Asare, Vice President of the Ghana Medical Association (GMA), said given the rate at which the H5N1 influenza virus, which causes bird flu, was spreading the threat of a pandemic was eminent. "It is a case of when, not if, the next pandemic will strike." He made the remark at a public lecture organised by the Association of Recognised Professional Bodies (ARPB) on the current situation of avian influenza in Ghana.

Speaking on the significance of avian influenza transmission to humans, he noted that three conditions needed to be present for the outbreak of a pandemic - there should be a novel (new) virus; the new virus should cause disease to humans and the virus should spread through human-to-human transmission.

He said in the case of H5N1 the first two conditions were fulfilled but no case of human-to-human transmission had been reported as yet. "Currently we have records of bird-to-bird and bird-to-human transmission which can be brought under control - we need our pastors to pray that human-to- human transmission would not occur anytime soon," he said.

Statistics available from the World Health Organisation (WHO) indicate that so far, 319 human H5N1 infections have been detected worldwide, out of which 192 deaths, representing 60 per cent of persons infected have occurred.

WHO and influenza experts across the globe have also predicted that when the pandemic occurs, between two to seven million deaths would occur.

In 1918, when the Spanish H1N1 Influenza occurred between 20 and 50 million fatalities were recorded. In 1957 the Asian H2N2 influenza killed at least two million humans while one million deaths were recorded in the 1968 Hong Kong H3N2 influenza pandemic.

Dr. Asare said the health sector alone would need not less than US$5.3 million to effectively control the bird flu situation in Ghana and therefore called on the government to find money to assist the various sectors to deal with the situation.

"Currently no one has immunity against the virus - we are not safe - we can't afford a pandemic. Our development partners are likely to prepare vaccines for their peoples when a pandemic breaks out and when that happens we will suffer greatly," he said.

Dr. Andreas Miles from US Agency for International Development said currently 50 different bird species had been affected adding that the number of birds infected ran into billions with China alone recording five billion birds with bird flu infections.

She said the virus killed younger persons faster than older persons, adding it thrived on overreaction and younger persons being more active made it easier for the virus to work on them. "The virus has been found to change in character so whatever vaccine is developed would also need to be changed year-after-year to ensure that it combats the virus effectively," she said.

Dr. Francis Kunadu-Ampratwum from the Ghana Veterinary Medical Association (GVMA) said in terms of preparedness in Ghana there was a working group in place, which monitored the situation closely and mapped out strategies and plans to inform action.

He said the challenge had been the fact that farmers whose birds were found to be infected with the virus were not forthcoming with information as to how the disease could have got unto their farms. "The way things are now we still do not know how the recent outbreak started from Tema to Sunyani to Aflao then to Togo between April and June," he said.

He said in that outbreak alone at least 21,622 birds were destroyed by Bird Flu Coordinating Team in four farms in between Tema and Nungua and an additional 2,629 were destroyed in homes and poultry farms in Sunyani.

Dr. Kunadu-Ampratwum noted that the mode of the spread had been mainly through movement of birds across borders and the illegal trade in wild birds.

He called for "a taskforce with teeth to bite" to check the illegal trade in wild birds.

"There is also a need for a nationwide bio-security which ensures that humans would not bring diseases unto their farms, know the warning signs of bird flu, protect themselves, their families and community, report sick birds to the nearest veterinary authorities," he said. Mr. Ace Ankomah from the Ghana Bar Association said there was no need for a special taskforce to deal with the bird flu situation, adding that the laws empowered the veterinary officers and guards to deal with the situation.

He said the problem on hand was not lack of enough laws and regulations but rather lack of effective implementation of the laws. Mr. Ankomah noted, for instance, that veterinary guards and ordinary public officers had the authority under the law to destroy animals found to pose public health risk and that persons found to be harbouring such animals were liable for prosecution. "We must begin to prosecute some of the poultry farmers on whose farms infected birds are found," he said. 02 Aug. 07