As the serialisation beginning today on Page 7 of this paper shows, Thabo Mbeki may have his succession wish. But, he is being cautioned to 'tread carefully' because the ANC, with time-honoured customs like the NPP has a long list of able bodies with legitimate claims to the leadership.

Two of the top contenders, former Vice President Jacob Zuma and former General Secretary Cyril Ramaphosa are certainly not Mbeki's preferred choices. Ramaphosa famously gave Mbeki a good run for his money in 1997.

Yet, what is telling about the South African contest is that virtually all the contenders have strong links with the grassroots and were very much at the forefront of the anti-apartheid struggle, with the top four contenders all being prison graduates. South Africans, like Ghanaians, know that even though freedom is now 13 years old, they are not out of the woods yet and would still want their next leader to be one with an intimate knowledge of what the struggle was like so that when given the power he would guard it well.

In Ghana, the latest opinion poll on the NPP primaries show that we could probably for the first time see the flagbearership of the party going into a re-run since J B Danquah contested for the party’s leadership some sixty years ago, when the party was called the United Gold Coast Convention. But, on the other hand it seems to be crystallising, with 16 of the 19 candidates sharing 21% of the votes according to the latest Research International. It is becoming clearer by the day that some 80% of those in the race are at best pace-setters.

That is not to say that they are not strong on the ground. What the sampled results show is that in an internal contest voters usually have a second choice and there may be a candidate they least want to win. This can convince either some candidates or their supporters to throw their weight behind their second choice. The latest opinion poll conducted by reputable pollsters, RI, as well as others conducted by a diverse field of pollsters have consistently thrown up Nana Akufo-Addo, Alan Kyerematen and Alhaji Aliu Mahama as the men to beat in the December 22 NPP flagbearership contest. In fact, latest figures indicate the three men are beginning to take votes away from the others, with the combined share of the three men (74.38%) bigger than the votes of all the others combined.

What gives more weight to the latest poll is the target group. The pollsters targeted five out of the ten executives of all the constituencies in the country (1150), and achieved a 95% (1089) success rate. It is reasonable to assume that their views are highly representative of the views of the people they represent. After all, a delegate is not a free agent but must at least endeavour to represent the common opinion of those who nominally delegated him. Still, we cannot but agree with Alan Kyerematen’s spokesman Mike Ampong that at best this poll is just a probable indication of what is likely to happen. Delegates are yet to be selected and therefore aspirants should read into these polls but with considerable caution. They should neither be disheartened nor overly confident. But, they ignore the signs at their own financial peril and to some extent, humiliation.

Compared to the poll conducted by the same pollsters, RI, in July, Alan Kyerematen has made some gains. But, the biggest loser of this appears to be the Vice President, who has ceded his second position to the former Trade Minister. According to some analysts, Alan is feeding from the same vantage pool as the Vice President, the exploitation of incumbency. This argument is premised on the presumption that Alan is benefiting from the perceived support of the President. If this argument is anything to go by, then with the Vice President indicating after his filing that he intends to go all out campaigning henceforth, then the battle between the two men would be intense.

We left Akufo-Addo in this analysis because he seems to occupy a special place. Akufo-Addo remains indomitably constant at the top. His support base appears to be emanating from the core of the party. Any candidate who controls the heartland of the NPP tradition, Ashanti can be clearly seen as the common choice of the party grassroots. The Eastern Region is the second heartland. But, since the former Foreign Minister hails from there this could account for some of his massive support there.

Yet, Eastern is the region with not only the highest number of contenders (six or loosely, 8), but, it also boasts of four of the strongest contenders, including Yaw Osafo-Maafo, Hackman Owusu-Agyemang and Dan Botwe. For Nana Akufo-Addo to be beating the President’s perceived preferred choice from that candidate’s own area, Ashanti Region, is the clearest indication that no candidate must be pushed against the will and voice of the people to lead the ruling party in next year’s crucial general elections.

And, for the MP for Abuakwa South to again be leading in the region where the NPP is least popular, Volta Region, must also be seen as another reminder of the wisdom in the popular desire of the masses, in this case, the party’s rank and file - those who will be at the forefront of selling the next flagbearer in their neighbourhoods.

Even in the three northern regions where Akufo-Addo is supposed to have dropped in popularity, this could be attributed to the fact that he has not been physically able to visit those areas since July-August 2006. His plan to kick off his second national tour there last month in the north was put off in solidarity with flood disaster victims. But, he returns there next week. With less than two months to the D-day, we believe it is perhaps time for all the aspirants, including the current top three, to do a dispassionate assessment of their chances and make the right decisions. Granted, a day is a long time in politics. But if a plethora of polls consistently place you at the back of the pack, it might be prudent to take a second look at the people who clamour for your handouts but cast their eyes- and their votes- elsewhere.

But, those at the bottom should not see this adventure as useless because they have helped to revitalise their party and also their filing fees, etc, should be seen as a generous contribution from stalwarts of the party. The NPP was built on a firm foundation of respecting the right of the individual to make his own decisions predicated on the relevant information. Such a tenet also believes in healthy competition, whether internally or on the national stage. It is gratifying that the philosophy espoused by the party’s founders lives on today, reflected most strongly in the numbers of people who have stepped up and offered themselves as ready and able to lead the party into next year’s general elections. But, there is a vast difference between a wish to lead and an ability to lead. There is no doubt President Kufuor is the most successful leader of the Danquah-Busia-Dombo tradition. But, he is bound by the Constitution to step down next year. We believe what the NP needs to focus on at the moment is defining the kind of leader who best fits the bill as next leader. The leadership would be helped by a decision by some aspirants to step aside, in the interest of the party, and throw their support into the re-election effort.