The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) may be heading for a run-off when delegates converge on December 22, 2007 to pick the party’s flagbearer for the 2008 presidential election. Information reaching Daily Guide indicates that some of the presidential aspirants have commenced serious behind-the-scene negotiations that could lead to some of them falling out of the ‘crowded’ race.

This follows the outcome of the recent opinion polls which indicate that none of the 19 presidential aspirants will meet the party’s constitutional requirements of polling a minimum aggregate of 50 per cent plus one (50% +1) votes. The open reality has compelled frontrunners in the race to dangle carrots before other competitors to subsume their ambitions, not minding the fact that they have all picked up nomination forms.

However, most of them are treading cautiously. “We are working and talking together”, an aspirant told Daily Guide yesterday. “It doesn’t matter; you can even file and later step down. After all, the money goes into party organization,” he said, citing the example of former Speaker of Parliament, Rt. Hon Peter Ala Adjetey, who in 1992 paid his filing fee but stepped down at the last minute. The behind-the-scene talks have delayed the filing of nomination papers to enable the aspirants contest the slot. A survey conducted by Research International (RI), a reputable research organisation whose report was published by the local media, gives the leading candidate close to 40 percent, as at August, 2007.

Daily Guide has gathered that a number of the aspirants, foreseeing the ‘glaring futility’ in their bid, are neck-deep in behind-the-scene horse-trading for possible alliances ahead of time. The paper is reliably informed that even though all aspirants had paid and collected nomination forms, not all would return them.

The survey, conducted separately from the perspectives of general voters and party executives, says Nana Akufo-Addo, Alhaji Aliu Mahama, John Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, Dr. Kwame Addo-Kufuor and Yaw Osafo-Maafo are leading the pack. Captioned, ‘Who Carries the NPP Banner/Who beats Prof John Atta Mills?, the poll says the former Foreign Affairs Minister commands an ‘uncomfortable lead’ of 30 percent among the voters and 38 percent among the executives.

The Vice President, Aliu Mahama, has 23 percent of votes from the public, while the other 16 aspirants share the remaining 47 per cent, making it a compelling reason for the realistic candidates to seek alliances now or prepare the ground for one when a first-round voting fails to produce an outright winner. Those who did not seem to make any impressive marks, according to the RI polls, include Prof. Kwabena Frimpong-Boateng, Jake Obetsebi-Lamptey, Nkrabeah Effa-Dartey, Boakye Kyeremanteng Agyarko, Prof. Mike Oquaye, Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, Felix Owusu-Adjapong and Dr. Arthur Kennedy among others.

While Nana Addo’s choice cuts fairly across most of the regions, his closest opponent, the Vice President, had heavy endorsement in Northern and Volta regions. “Apart from the Northern, Upper West, Volta and Western Regions where Alhaji Aliu Mahama led, Nana Akufo-Addo was favoured in all the regions by the voting public”, the report said. Party executives in the Western Region, however, think Alhaji Mahama, Osafo-Maafo and Dr Addo-Kufuor had better chances of beating the opposition NDC’s Prof. John Evans Atta-Mills. In fact, voters from the west chose Alan Kyeremanteng ahead of all others.

A newspaper had predicted that the formation of alliances could lead to the emergence of blocs, possibly on ethnic lines. “Two titanic groups will emerge; one from Ashanti and the other from the Eastern Region. These could be to some extent, called the Asante clique versus the Akyem clique , though the picture is bound to be modified as some non-Asantes and non-Akyems will join one or the other group,” it indicated, adding that the Aliu faction is not as keen as the other two.

The RI poll said reasons for voters’ choice of a candidate range from popularity, innovation, personal appeal, support to party, experience and competence. Two freshmen, Dr. Barfuor Adjei-Barwuah and John Kwame Kodua, have also joined the race, making it more difficult to get a ‘one-touch winner’.