NDC’s ATTA MILLS MAINTAINS LEAD OVER NPP’s AKUFO-ADDO, 52% TO 43% IN CAMPAIGN’S FINAL DAYS

London, United Kingdom – Policy & Strategy Associates, Inc. national pre-election poll of likely voters indicates NDC presidential candidate John Atta Mills holds a significant lead over NPP presidential candidate Nana Akufo-Addo in the final days of Campaign 2008. The national pre-election poll, conducted Sunday November 23rd through Wednesday November 26th found:

* Atta Mills, the NDC candidate, supported by 52 percent of likely voters.

* Akufo-Addo, the NPP candidate, supported by 43 percent.

* CPP candidate Ndoum supported by 3 percent.

The survey finds indications that turnout may well be significantly high as 8 in 10 likely voters say they will “surely” vote in the 2008 presidential and parliamentary election. The new poll projects increased rates of voting among the youth (broadly described as those within the 18-44 age group), who strongly favour NDC’s Atta Mills. But it also finds signs of greater likely turnout across the board.

Both candidates hold sizeable leads among their core constituent groups, including winning above seven-in-ten votes among their own partisans (95% of NDC sympathizers said they are “surely” voting for Atta Mills, 75% of NPP sympathizers “surely” voting for Akufo-Addo). Atta Mills has strong support among the youth (53%-43%), urban voters (56% to 40%), lower-income voters (59%-38%). Akufo-Addo has a large lead among those who describe themselves as higher-income voters (60%-37%) and narrower advantages among older voters over 44 years (47%-45%) and rural voters (48%-47%).

Significantly, Atta Mills outperforms Akufo-Addo or holds an advantage among key swing voter groups that have voted NPP in the past, or been evenly divided, in recent presidential elections. Overall, voters who voted NPP or have switched party preferences in past elections favour Atta Mills by 57% to 40%.

Policy & Strategy Associates, Inc. joint Editorial and Research Committee members concluded from what the latest national polling data suggests that in the event the 2.5% margin of error plays out against the candidate with the upper hand, which in this case is the NDC’s Atta Mills, he is likely to poll 52% minus 2.5% which is equal to 49.5% and in the event the 2.5% margin of error occurs in favour of NPP’s Akufo-Addo, he is likely to poll 43% plus 2.5% which is equal to 45.5%, effectively taking the election into a second round with the NDC’s Atta Mills winning majority share of the votes. It must be noted that this probability is broadly in line with our previous research findings and therefore we are not ruling out a possible run-off.

METHODOLOGY:

Policy & Strategy Associates, Inc. field researchers interviewed 1,539 likely voters nationally. With a sample of this size, one can say with 95% confidence that the results are considered accurate within plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, of what they would have been had the entire adult voter population in Ghana been polled. Likely voters are defined as individuals who are registered to vote, who voted in the 2004 presidential election, are 7 to 10 on a 10-point likelihood-to-vote scale and are interested in following news and events about the campaign “very seriously” or “seriously”.

Individuals who didn't vote in the 2004 presidential election qualify as likely voters if they're registered to vote, are 8 to 10 on a 10-point likelihood-to-vote scale and are interested in following news about the campaign "very seriously" or "seriously."

The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other subgroups of the survey population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the Ghanaian population according to official figures. One-on-one interviews were conducted with respondents having the option to be interviewed in local Languages or English.

Policy & Strategy Associates, Inc. previous October 25 to November 7 poll results indicated the NDC’s Atta Mills leading NPP’s Akufo-Addo by 53.6% to 42.0%. This result was based on the National Average of all Regional polls and assumed a significantly large margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points to allow for other sources of error.

The previous October 25 to November 7 poll results show Atta Mills leads in the following regions:

Greater Accra Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7

Atta Mills NDC 55.0% Akufo-Addo NPP 43.0% Other/Not Sure 2.0%

Brong Ahafo Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7

Atta Mills NDC 54.7% Akufo-Addo NPP 43.1% Other/Not Sure 2.2%

Northern Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7

Atta Mills NDC 60.7% Akufo-Addo NPP 33.4% Other/Not Sure 5.9%

Volta Region Oct 25 - Nov. 7

Atta Mills NDC 84.8% Akufo-Addo NPP 13.6% Other/Not Sure 1.6%

Upper East Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7

Atta Mills NDC 56.4% Akufo-Addo NPP 29.7% Other/Not Sure 13.9%

Upper West Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7

Atta Mills NDC 60.5% Akufo-Addo NPP 30.8% Other/Not Sure 8.7%

The previous October 25 to November 7 poll results show Akufo-Addo leads in the following regions:

Eastern Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7 Akufo-Addo NPP 58.5% Atta Mills NDC 40.7% Other/Not Sure 0.8% Ashanti Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7 Akufo-Addo NPP 68.7% Atta Mills NDC 30.2% Other/Not Sure 1.1% Western Region Oct 25 -Nov. 7 Akufo-Addo NPP 53.5% Atta Mills NDC 43.1% Other/Not Sure 3.4%

In the previous poll, a dead heat is more likely to be in the Central Region as indicated by the polling figures:

Central Region Oct 25-Nov. 7

Atta Mills NDC 50.6% Akufo-Addo NPP 45.8% Other/Not Sure 3.6%

Policy & Strategy Associates, Inc

Email: policystrategy@consultant.com

Research Committee Members who liaised with Ghana field researchers:

Nana Kwasi Mensah (London, United Kingdom)

Prince Kassim (London, United Kingdom)

Sheila Adukwei Ashong (Toronto, Canada)

Ivy Ama Smith (Boston, Massachusetts-USA)

Elias S.K Afeti (Edinburgh, United Kingdom)