At least seven million Ugandans will still be living in extreme poverty by 2030, according to a study by Brookings Institute.

The study contained in the Foresight Africa 2020 reveals that Uganda will not able to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) number one, which seeks to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030.

Presenting key issues of the study, which highlights priorities for Africa in 2020-30, Dr Brahima Coulibaly, the Africa Growth Initiative at the Brookings Institution senior fellow and director, said by 2030, Africa will have 397.9 million people living in extreme poverty, of which 7.6 million will be in Uganda.

All countries in Sub Saharan Africa, he said, are expected to make some progress towards SDGs by 20230, however, 18 countries out of 44 will get less than halfway to the absolute targets by 2030.

Concentration of the world’s poor The study also states that as of 2015, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest concentration of the world’s poor, with 41.3 per cent of people living under the poverty line. An estimated 600 million people do not have access to electricity, and millions die every year from preventable diseases. Relentless population growth and climate change also present two major threats to continued economic progress. Dr Coulibaly said with one-third of the 2030 agenda already complete, it is an opportune time to examine Africa’s progress on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as well as assess what adjustments to strategies are needed to overcome the remaining obstacles.

Africa, he said, should provide time-bound targets in key sectors such as health, education, employment, energy, infrastructure, and environment that must be achieved by 2030.

Dr Ezra Suruma, the Makerere University chancellor, said that whereas there were still some challenges, Uganda had made significant strides in some areas.

“There are challenges in domesticating the SDG into national development plan and in closing the wide financing and data gaps,” he said, but noted that the financing gap has grown close to $2b amid reduced development assistance.

He also warned that although the government has insisted that the country’s debt was still sustainable, the growing nominal public debt is expected to rise and [will] strain the budget as more resources are allocated for interest payments.

Currently, 20 percent of revenues is used in servicing debt. This rate of debt servicing is consistent with countries with high risk or debt distress,” he said.

Large market potential

According to Dr. Suruma, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which is expected to be implemented on July 1, 2020, is expected to bring together a market potential of 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP of more than $3.4 trillion.

Therefore, he said, African countries, especially Uganda, must build internal capacities that will allow them to compete in such a large market. To benefit from the AfCFTA, according to Dr Suruma, Uganda must pursue policies that promote economic diversification, encourage and protect innovations by both residents and non-residents.

However, the country must ensure that there is sharper focus on domestic innovation.

Besides innovations, Dr Suruma said, Uganda needs to focus on resolving existing and potential trade disputes and political tensions with neighbouring countries in order to optimise opportunities from AfCFTA.