It is now 10 months since the outbreak of civil war in Sudan in April 2023, pitting the Sudan Armed Forces (Saf) against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a powerful paramilitary group. The war, which erupted after relations between the two wings of Sudan’s security apparatus broke down, rapidly spread beyond the capital, Khartoum.

More recently, the Saf have suffered numerous setbacks at the hands of the RSF. For months, army units have struggled to break their grip on much of the capital. The paramilitary group and their allied militias have overrun most of Darfur and swathes of South Kordofan in western Sudan.

Since December 2023, RSF columns have also advanced into Central and Eastern Sudan. This followed the collapse of army defences in Wad Medani, one of the country’s biggest cities. This was a landmark humiliation for the Saf.

In the eyes of decision-makers across the region, the prospect of RSF supremo Mohamed Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti” becoming Sudan’s new strongman is a distinct possibility.