March 2024 is projected to see cocoa prices fluctuating between $4,882 and $4,922 per tonne, according to the Bank of Ghana’s Commodity Price Outlook.

This forecast anticipates support for cocoa prices stemming from tight supplies and adverse weather conditions in Cote d’Ivoire, which pose a threat to the April-to-September 2023 mid-crop year.

In December 2023, cocoa prices surged by 4.9% to reach $4,235.6 per tonne, driven by tightening supplies and the expectation of a third consecutive deficit in the current crop season.

Compared to the previous year, cocoa prices have witnessed a remarkable increase of over 66.0%, primarily attributed to adverse weather conditions, black pod disease, and insufficient fertilisers, which have collectively weakened supply.

Brent Crude Outlook

The outlook for Brent crude oil prices is anticipated to hinge on growth prospects in China and the United States, as indicated by the latest International Monetary Fund growth forecast.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of new voluntary production cuts by OPEC+ could further bolster prices.

Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $77.26 per barrel in December 2023, marking a 5.8% decrease from the previous month. This decline was driven by reduced energy demand in the United States and China, coupled with easing concerns of supply disruptions following tensions in the Red Sea. Relative to December 2022, Brent crude prices experienced a 5.0% drop, with reduced volatility observed throughout the year.

Gold Prices

Gold prices are poised to maintain their strength in the near term, supported by expectations of rate cuts and safe-haven appeal amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Spot gold saw a 2.6% increase, closing at an average price of $2,035.43 per fine ounce in December 2023.

This uptick was driven by a weak dollar and declining bond yields, fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in March 2024.

Year-on-year, gold prices witnessed a 13.3% increase in 2023 compared to December 2022.

For the entirety of 2023, gold prices averaged $1,943.7 per ounce, surpassing the $1,801.4 per fine ounce recorded in 2022, driven by expectations of a pause in interest rate hikes.