A recovery in cocoa production in the world’s largest growers is set to put an end to a massive bean shortage that sent prices surging to a record this year, according to commodities broker Marex Group.

Marex expects cocoa output will top supplies by 303,000 metric tons in the upcoming 2024-25 season that starts in October. That would mark the first year of surplus after three straight seasons of deficit.

Cocoa futures in New York have more doubled in the past 12 months as supply shortages significantly drained global stockpiles. The rally has even drawn in famed energy trader Pierre Andurand, who recently stepped away from oil markets while sticking with a bullish outlook on cocoa.

Andurand Capital Management expects stockpiles held by both New York and London futures exchanges to run out by the end of the year, and sees a cocoa production deficit of between 650,000 to 700,000 tons this season. That’s higher than the 439,000-ton shortage forecast by the International Cocoa Organization, as crops in Ivory Coast and Ghana have suffered from bad weather and disease. Marex has pegged this season’s shortfall at 475,000 tons.

Next season, Marex expects that output will rebound on the back of improved weather conditions in West Africa, the world’s top growing region.

“The development of new the crop is looking strong,” said Jonathan Parkman, head of agricultural sales at Marex.

Wetter weather in West Africa has already helped to push cocoa prices down from all-time highs hit earlier this year. Futures in New York have retreated by more than 30% from the peak seen in April. Prices are still up by nearly 85% in 2024.

Cocoa demand is also expected to be weak, Marex forecasts. After an expected slump this year in the so-called cocoa grindings, the amount of beans processed by the industry should still only grow moderately even after the supply of beans improves next season.

“The main effect of extreme higher cocoa prices will manifest in lower demand over the next six months,” Parkman said.