The Institute for Energy Security (IES) is forecasting a 1.5% increase in fuel prices in the second pricing-window of July.

“Guided by the fundamental indicators of local fuel price changes under de-regulation; rise in price of Gasoline, Gasoil and Brent crude on the international fuel market, the country’s local currency against the U.S. Dollar, the Institute for Energy Security(IES) foresees fuel prices to rise on the local market by up to 1.5%,” it said in a statement.

It added: “This imminent price increase may be averted by an intervention from the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) if the regulator decides to trigger the Price Stabilization mechanism to standardize prices.”

Below is the full statement from the IES

FUEL PRICES TO SHOOT UP

REVIEW OF JULY 2019 FIRST PRICING-WINDOW

Local Fuel Market Performance

Over the last two weeks, prices of petroleum products at the pumps has remained unchanged. This was largely due to favourable international market prices. Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) across the country continued to sell a litre of Gasoline and Gasoil at an average price of GH¢5.15 and GH¢5.17. IES-Market scan indicates Benab Oil, Pacific Oil, Lucky Oil and Frimps Energy sell the least-priced fuel per litre at the pump.

World Oil Market Prices

Oil prices shot up due to OPEC+ production cuts and rising United States-Iran Tensions. Iran has announced it has exceeded the 3.67 percent Uranium Enrichment level imposed by the 2015 JCPOA and has gone beyond 4.5 percent. Within the period under review, average Brent crude price rose by 1.37%. From an average price of $64.09 per barrel in the last window, Brent crude currently trades at $64.97 per barrel. According to Standard and Poor’s Global Platts benchmark for Gasoline and Gasoil, prices of both products recorded increases on the international fuel market. Gasoline closed trading at $654.68 per metric tonne from a previous price of $613.91, a change of 6.64 percent. Gasoil saw a price change of 2.41 percent, from a previous price of $570.09. per metric tonne to close at $654.68 per metric tonne.

Local Forex and Fuel Stock

Data recorded from the foreign exchange market by IES Economic Department suggests a fairly stable local currency, as the Ghana Cedi closed trading at GH¢4.41 to a US Dollar, with a marginal depreciation of 0.94%.

PROJECTIONS FOR JULY 2019 SECOND PRICING-WINDOW

Guided by the fundamental indicators of local fuel price changes under de-regulation; rise in price of Gasoline, Gasoil and Brent crude on the international fuel market, the country’s local currency against the U.S. Dollar, the Institute for Energy Security(IES) foresees fuel prices to rise on the local market by up to 1.5%. This imminent price increase may be averted by an intervention from the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) if the regulator decides to trigger the Price Stabilization mechanism to standardize prices.

Signed: MIKDAD MOHAMMED