Fitch Solutions has projected a modest primary income deficit for Ghana following the ongoing debt restructuring efforts.

The restructuring agreement with commercial creditors has replaced previous dollar bonds with new instruments reducing Ghana’s external debt service obligations by $3.5 billion over the period 2024-2026.

According to the UK-based firm, these adjustments have already led to a reduction in interest payments by 1.3% of GDP in 2024, with further reductions of 0.9% of GDP in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 compared to the original bond terms.

The agreement with official creditors has secured a moratorium on debt servicing until May 2026.

As a result, the firm forecasts Ghana’s primary income deficit to remain contained at 3.1% of GDP, significantly lower than the five-year pre-default average of 5.5%.

Ghana’s current account is expected to face pressures due to reductions in US international aid.

The US, which contributes about a fifth of Ghana’s total aid receipts, recently announced a 90% cut in USAID contracts, a move expected to negatively impact the country’s secondary income surplus.

Although Fitch Solutions anticipates an increase in remittance inflows and aid from other donor countries, these are unlikely to fully offset the sharp decline in US aid.

The firm projects a 3.0% contraction in net current transfers in 2025.



SP/MA