Business News of Monday, 8 September 2008

Source: Tom Bawden in New York /Times Online

Ghana is at the top of the world's stock-return league table

Anybody lucky or clever enough to have invested $1,000 in Ghana's benchmark stock index on January 1, 2008, would be sitting on a tidy $370 profit today.

That might not sound like a huge amount, although a 37 per cent return in barely nine months is never to be sniffed at, but it is extremely impressive given the backdrop of plunging share prices across the world. Indeed, it puts Ghana at the top of the world's stock-return league table for the year so far, according to Bloomberg.

At the other end of the spectrum, the CSI 300 index of shares for the biggest companies listed in China is at the bottom, recording a 56.34 per cent decline this year. It would leave the unfortunate person who invested $1,000 in China's leading companies nursing a $563.40 loss and feeling more than a bit miffed - the same index grew by 162.2 per cent last year, turning $1,000 into $2,622.

To put these returns into perspective, Britain's FTSE 100 index comes in at No 56 in the global returns league table, with a 26.52 per cent decline this year. The Dow Jones industrial average ranks at No 26, with a 15.37 per cent drop.

Ghana, well endowed with natural resources, especially gold and oil, has benefited hugely from the surge in commodity prices, which may have dipped in recent weeks but still remain high.

The West African country, which gained independence from Britain in 1957, is also a beneficiary of investor sentiment that views large parts of Africa as a brave new world for business, much as they perceived South Asia during the 1980s.

To a certain extent, Ghana's gain is China's loss. The workshop of the world has been hit hard by the soaring price of commodities, which helped producers, such as Ghana, by pushing up its costs and reducing demand for its manufactured products. There is also a sense that the meteoric rise of Chinese shares in 2007 may have been overdone.

Global GDP growth, which stood at 3.8 per cent in 2007, is forecast by the United Nations to decline to 1.8 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent in 2009. GDP growth in China, which hit 11.9 per cent in 2007, is forecast to drop to 8.5 per cent this year and 8.3 per cent in 2009.