The global rating agency, S&P, has forecasted that Ghana’s public debt, inclusive of COCOBOD obligations, will continue to exceed 60 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in gross terms until 2027.

The New York-based firm indicates that debt levels will continue to be influenced by growth, fiscal conditions, and bal­ance-of-payments results, includ­ing factors that extend beyond the conclusion of Ghana’s Interna­tional Monetary Programme in June 2026.

“We estimate that, post-ex­change, foreign currency debt still makes up around 66 percent of total government debt (assuming a 99 percent participation rate in the Eurobond exchange, with 91 percent of holders choosing to swap into the discount notes).”

It warned that it could lower the outlook on Ghana’s local cur­rency ratings to negative should the country’s fiscal and external outcomes worsen.

On the downside risk, S&P revealed that it could raise the long-term foreign currency rating if Ghana completes the restruc­turing of the remaining commer­cial debt, adding, “Our analysis will incorporate the sovereign’s post-restructuring credit factors, including the new terms and con­ditions of its external debt.

"We could raise the local currency ratings if Ghana makes further progress on stabilising its public finances and accumulating foreign currency reserves.”

S&P assigned a ‘CCC+’ foreign currency issue rating to Ghana’s five categories of new notes following the completion of the government’s distressed debt exchange on Eurobonds.

The exchange offer received the consent of the required majority of Ghana’s Eurobond holders.

The restructuring of Ghana’s $13.1 billion in Eurobonds plus arrears aimed to ease external debt-service pressure and restore public debt sustainability as part of the ongoing Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with the IMF.