Rice prices in Ghana are anticipated to experience a significant surge following the recent decision by the world’s largest rice exporter, India, to impose a ban on rice exports. This action, taken by the Indian government to address domestic inflation concerns, has raised concerns regarding potential global food price hikes.

India, accounting for over 40% of worldwide rice shipments, holds the position of the leading rice exporter. As a result of India’s embargo, rice prices from various Asian nations have already witnessed an upward trend in global markets, with traders projecting substantial further increases in the near future.

In 2022, Ghana imported rice worth $552 million, ranking as the 13th largest rice importer globally. Rice stood as the third most imported commodity in Ghana during the same year. Notably, data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) reveals that Ghana alone imported rice worth more than $100 million from India.

The repercussions of this embargo will soon impact Ghana, affecting not only the prices of non-basmati rice but also basmati rice varieties. Experts assert that this ban represents the latest setback for the global rice market, which has already experienced price hikes of 15%-20% since September 2022.

Based on current trends, the cost of a 50kg bag of non-basmati rice, typically retailing between GHC750 and GHC800, is expected to surpass GHC1000 in the coming days. Given India’s significant role as a major rice supplier to various crucial markets in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, these populations are particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the rice market.

Furthermore, it is worth noting that forty-two countries rely on India for over 50% of their total rice imports, making it challenging to readily substitute Indian imports with those from other major rice exporting nations such as Viet Nam, Thailand, or Pakistan. In Africa, India’s market share in 2022 surpassed 80% for several countries.