Don't Expect Too Much From Koizumi's Visit

The PM of Japan Junichiro Koizumi is making a historic visit to Ghana from today, Monday May 1 to Wednesday May 3rd. This visit is historic because it marks the first time a sitting Japanese PM is visiting the country. Former PM Hashimoto visited Ghana in 1999 but only after he left office and in the year 2000 then PM Mori visited some African countries including Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa, he didn't visit Ghana. It is worthy of note that Mori's visit was the first to Africa by a Japanese PM and he did so when he had only two months left in office. PM Koizumi is leaving office in September so he has only four to five months in office. In Western parlance he is already a lame duck PM.

It is worthy of note that Japan has supported Africa's economic development with its ODA assistance totalling about 10 billion dollars in the last ten years but this amount is not much compared to what Japan has given to other regions like Asia, Latin America, or even to the former Eastern Europe. Africa's needs are great perhaps supercedes all other regions since poverty is extreme here, but in terms of ODA assistance from Japan, Africa is the least considered region interms of scale of preference. Japan has in the past considered Africa as being too far away from them and that it was the European nations which colonised Africa, so these Euro nations have the responsibility to help Africa develop and not them (Japan). They have also claimed that there are many poor nations in their own backyard to help so they cannot be overly concerned about Africa, which is too far away anyway. This explains in part why no Japanese PM visited Africa in the 20th century and before, and the dearth of Japanese investments in Africa.Whilst Japan's economy and Foreign Direct Investment (FDD) have been the engine of growth for South East Asian and South Asian economies, none of the giant Japanese companies have any significant investment in Africa.Forget about the service centers and sales outlets dotted here and there. We are talking here about investment in production facilities and Technical Research and Development Centers that could have impacted positively on African economies and led to tranfer of technology..

Now Africa is becoming a little important to Japan in the scheme of things but purely for geopolitical reasons. China is opposed to Japan's UN security council permanent membership bid and China from all intents and purposes has more influence in Africa than Japan. The timing and the choice of countries of PM Koizumi's visit are pretty obvious. His visit follows directly on the heels of President Hu Jintao's visit to Africa. And Koizumi chose Ethiopia because it is the seat of AU for easy intereaction with AU executive committee to secure AU's support for Japan's bid. Ghana was chosen because it is one of the only two African nation's with non permanent membership of the UN Security Council. The PM visit therefore has two main objectives.......not to bring Japanese investments to Ghana .....nor to announce any significant initiative...........but to secure Ghana's support for Japan's permanent membership bid for the UN Security Council and also to counter China's growing influence in Africa. Ghana needs to court China more aggressively than we are doing now, because that's where the future is. China's growing political and economic might and its membership of the Non Aligned and its own status as a developing country makes it more of a natural ally and an economic partner than Japan.

In order to achieve these objectives, Japan has announced doubling aid to Africa in the next decade and as the NPP politicians get their begging bowls out to meet the visiting Japanese PM Koizumi, they may have to note that no significant increase in aid will be announced for Ghana this time. Some agreements on providing grants and loans may be signed but perhaps the beggars will be disappointed. With the present realignment of US forces in the Pacific including Japan, the US is imposing a huge bill upwards of $30 billion on Japan which it is reeling to pay. This constraint added to the fact the Koizumi himself will be leaving office in September, he cannot make any significant pledges of aid to Ghana or even if he did there's no guarantee that the next leader,(likely Abe or Fukuda) will carry it through. If our politicians are adept, they should know how to play our UN Security Council membership card well in private discussions not go out in the open to beg for aid as the deputy foreign minister was doing even before the PM arrived.

Ben Ofosu-Appiah,
Tokyo, JAPAN.
The author is a political and social analyst based in Tokyo Japan. He is also a policy strategy advisor and a corporate trainer. He written extensively about politics and economic issues in Africa and the Third World. He welcomes your comments, and criticisms.