Ghana politics have consistently defied predictions. A notable example is the 2021 parliamentary election, where the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the New Patriotic Party (NPP) each secured 137 seats, with one independent candidate tipping the balance in favor of the NPP. This unprecedented “hung parliament” led to the coining of the term “Majority Group” instead of the majorly party we are used to.

The dramatic election of the speaker on 6th January, 2021, showcased Ghana’s unpredictability. Despite expectations, the minority party or the “minority group” NDC secured the speakership, a first in Ghana’s democratic history.

Fast-forward to October, 17, 2024, less than three months before the general election, and another shocking twist emerges. The speaker’s declaration of four seats vacant flips the parliamentary majority, potentially reversing leadership roles.

Ghana’s mercurial politics makes predicting election outcomes hazardous. Possible scenarios fro the December 7, 2024, elections include:

Former President Return: A previous President, John Dramani Mahama, could become the longest-serving elected president.

Historic Muslim Presidency: Dr. Mahamadu Bawumia and the NPP might break its eight-year cycle with Ghana’s first Muslim president.

Independent Candidate Victory: an independent candidate could defy odds and secure the presidency.

Ghana history underscores its capacity for surprise. Key factors contributing to this unpredictability include:

Shifting Alliances: unforeseen coalitions and party defections

Voter Sentiment: swing votes and regional dynamics

Economic Factors: impacts of economic policies on voter decisions

Conclusion Ghana’s politics is inherently unpredictable. As the nation approaches the December 7 election, one thing is certain: Ghana will continue making history. Ghana will continue to be the winner. Ghana will continue to be peaceful. Ghana will continue to be the Black Star.

Author:

Rev.Fr. Peter Ashiagbor

Email: cardiagh@gmail.com