To start with, while correlation has to do with complementary relationships, causation is concerned about cause and effect. Put differently, two variables are said to be correlated when they are related.

For example, even though smoking leads to an increased risk of developing cancer, it does not always cause cancer. On the other hand, causation occurs, when one thing causes another.

Therefore, not every correlation can be viewed as causation. Statistically, two variables are said to be correlated, when a change in one, causes a change in the other. Again, correlation can be positive or negative.

Meanwhile, whether positive or negative association, events could be perfectly positive, perfectly negative, strongly positive, strongly negative, weak positive, or weak negative.

As a Ghanaian who has been working with an Independent Governance Institution since March 2017, despite my ambivalence for politics, a real-life example of correlation being mistaken for causation is the issue of the fifth vice-president of the Republic of Ghana—H.E. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (an economist
and former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Ghana).

Although he was born to a veteran politician father—Mumuni Bawumia, chairman of the council of state from 1993 to 2000, a paramount chief and lawyer—his appointment in 2008 as the vice-presidential candidate by H.E. Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffo Addo—the president of the republic of Ghana—is what put him into the (political) limelight in Ghana.

It is also important to state that historically, he is the second Muslim vice president in Ghana. What has the abovementioned got to do with correlation and causation? someone might ask curiously. The point is, in Ghana, many people ascribe the political strides made by Dr. Bawumia to his Muslim background.

After all, if diversity did not matter, why would the two dominant political parties consecutively make it a norm to nominate people of northern descent, popularly called Northerners as vice presidents since the year 2000? The Muslim community is grateful for what the NPP has been doing in this regard and even if government machinery seems to have fully selectively supported the
candidature of Dr. Bawumia against the other ten contestants—particularly Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen aka Alan Cash whose supporters proudly claim to have been with the party since time immemorialؘ—many Muslims will be happy and will consider Dr. Bawumia’s political success a source of inspiration just like a black American family and other minority groups would consider the victory of Barack Hussein Obama as a marked victory till thy kingdom come.

In Ghana, there is no arguing that Dr. Bawumia has brought more glory to his party than his predecessor—the first Muslim vice-president (Ing. Aliu Mahama) who equally appears calm and composed like Dr. Bawumia (except for the fact that within a few years of active party politics the latter has become experienced at throwing dangerous punches otherwise known as jabs).

Aside from being given innumerable advantages by the president or government to excel, it appears he is the first politician to introduce economic lectures in public places (typically universities) attracting the attention of the media, civil society, political parties, and almost all other stakeholders. Again, the fact that his boss asserts that the success recorded at the Bank of Ghana during his time as Deputy Governor is his reason for nominating him as vice presidential candidate and subsequently vice-president of the Republic of Ghana makes it look like the correlation is being mistaken for causation with regards to the Oxford-trained Economist, humorously called ‘Walewale Adam Smith’ by his ardent critics. One would consider it humorous if one understands that he hails Walewale in the Northern part of Ghana where underdevelopment is rife.

In 2012, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) under which Dr. Bawumia served as running mate and recorded 47.74% (5,248,898) votes, was disgruntled about the outcome of the election and took the matter to court. Even though the supreme court ruled that H.E. John Dramani Mahama was the legitimately elected president with 50.7% (5,574,761) votes, Bawumia—a Ph.D. holder in Economics from England’s Buckingham University––was one of those few faces who were seen on television sets arguing the case of the NPP with ‘facts and figures’, which came to be known in Ghana as ‘pink sheets’. At the end of the election petition, it’s estimated that a whopping 11, 000 pink sheets had been tendered in court as evidenced by the NPP.

In Ghana, it is often easy to speculate correctly, who one votes for by looking at the voters’ ethnic background. However, over the past 8 years, the NPP has
got huge amounts of votes from the North which predominantly voted for their archrival—the National Democratic Congress. Even in places like Salaga where the folks are from the same tribe as former president John Dramani Mahama, the NPP
improved. Many have attributed this gargantuan shift to the Bawumia effect.

Meanwhile, if as a vice presidential candidate he could garner that many votes for his party, then it is obvious that just as the South rooted for a northerner (Dr. Bawumia) for the first time, the North is highly likely to throw its weight
behind Dr. Bawumia again. Just that the weight as one could envisage may appear monumental.

Relatedly, on August 26, 2023, the NPP held a special delegates’ election as a way of leading them to choose their flagbearer for the 2024 general election. Surprisingly, out of the 926 valid votes cast, Dr. Bawumia polled 629 (representing 68%) votes with Kennedy Agyapong, Businessman and Member of Parliament for Assin Central—the next to Dr. Bawumia—polling 132 (representing 14.3%) votes.

In other words, Dr. Bawumia won in 16 out of the 17 polling centers. What is more surprising is that Dr. Bawumia defeated contestants like Alan Cash, former Minister of Trade and Industry for 6 years, former Ghana’s Ambassador to the United States, and former advisor to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa who contested the president in 2007, 2010 and 2014 and emerged second with his votes dwindling whenever and each time the NPP opened up to elect its flagbearer.

The points above do not in any way, dismiss or underestimate the allegations being made that the election was marred with vote buying and in the words of some people: ‘backed by the establishment’ which has unfortunately led to the withdrawal of Alan Cash from the race. Granted that vote buying has been the norm in Ghanaian politics especially as goodies were shared and serious infrastructure works that otherwise would not have been initiated a few weeks before the bye-elections which got the opposition NDC’s James Gyakye
Quayson was reelected as Member of Parliament for Assin North after a court ruled removing him from office on grounds of holding dual citizenship and NPP’s Yaw Anim also won as Member of Parliament for Kumawu following the death of Philip Basoah.

The fact that the electorates took the goodies and gave James Gyakye Quayson
57.56% suggests that Ghanaians have reached an all-time high in political
discernment. This all-time high level of discernment is also supported by the fact that, in the 2020 general election, the two biggest political parties for the first time got the same number of seats for parliamentarians—resulting in a hung parliament for the first time in Ghana.

As the NPP’s final election to elect a flagbearer on November 24 approaches, many, are of the view that Dr. Bawumia will win again massively. Even as the argument as to whether Dr. Bawumia’s political success is correlated or causative continues, one can certainly observe that he is highly likely to win the NPP final flagbearer election consisting of four contestants come November 4, 2024. Indeed, it is unsurprising that Outcomes International Ghana and Center for Sustainable African Development Initiatives project Dr. Bawumia to win by 72%.

In conclusion, despite the unprecedented economic hardships bedeviling the country—which the ruling government never misses an opportunity to blame on the Russia-Ukraine war or COVID-19 (as though Ghana was more hit than Ukraine itself), the bad governance shown by this government for instance by continuing with the construction of the National Cathedral while Ghanaians wallowed in abject poverty and protested in unison by making their voice loud and clear that they were not in support of its construction, the court case of the former Member of Parliament and Minister for Water Resources, Works and Housing, Minister for Aviation, Sanitation and Water Resources, Madam Cecilia Abena
Dapaah (from whose home her house help stole $1 million, 300 million euros, and some expensive stuff) has shown that the ruling class is living comfortably and keeping huge sums at home while asking the citizens to bank theirs, the continuous use of exorbitant presidential jet while a far cheaper one was available, taxing Ghanaians more when the government while in opposition vehemently criticized the outgone government and promised to right the wrongs by
moving the country from taxation to production, Dr. Bawumia—the Head of the Economic Management Team—has a potent chance of leading the NPP to break the eight-year maximum mandate Ghanaians have always given to political parties since the inception of this 4th republic in 1992.

That said, it is worth remembering that everything affects everything else and life’s surest certainties are uncertainties. With both educated and uneducated
members of the opposition party deliberately rooting for Alan Cash out of possible fear of Dr. Bawumia’s prospects, the argument as to whether Dr. Bawumia’s political success is causative or correlative remains an interesting subject regardless of whether he eventually becomes the president of the Republic of Ghana in 2024 (and beyond) or not.