By Kwabena Boateng

Some time ago a group of people, calling itself FONKAR, came together ostensibly to beg, beseech, implore and cajole Nana Konadu Rawlings to challenge Mills for the flagbearer position of the NDC. It was clear to many right-thinking people that she was subtly testing the waters and pretending otherwise. However, many in the pro-Mills camp derided this, arguing ferociously that in the absence of her actual declaration, this was simply beer bar talk of mischief makers and hallucinating elements in the opposition NPP. They stuck their necks and heads in the sand, leaving their not-too-fragrant derrieres protruding in the air. Then the posters and t-shirts appeared, with FONKAR insisting shrilly-almost threatening-that ‘no’ was not an option for the first lady with respect to their demands. She said she was carefully considering their demands. And the deniers still insisted there was no evidence she was intending to stand. They failed to ask themselves the obvious question a secondary school student would have asked: who was funding all the t-shirts and posters? The lady kept mute, and refused to dissociate herself from FONKAR. Kofi Adams, her spokesman, refused to confirm whether she would stand. Still, the naysayers preened about and cooed that there was no cause for alarm. Even when she said, eventually, that she had an intention but was yet to declare, there were people who said that short of an actual declaration, nothing could be read into this.

When she declared, some said she would not go on and pick forms, and that it was all hot air. When she resigned as party 1st vice-chairman, turned up in angelic white to pick her forms and launched, all hell broke loose in the Mills camp, with a few clowns insisting she will not file, and that even if she does, she will pull out ahead of congress. Honestly! Talk of fiddling whilst Rome is burning merrily...

With the reality staring them in the face, some pro-Mills latter-day realists have started ‘advising’ her to step down, ostensibly in the name of party unity, even whilst they insist with a shrug that it is a democracy, that she has every right to stand, that Prof will win congress anyway and that the party will unite solidly post-congress and defeat the NPP come 2012. Notwithstanding all this there are reports of the Asantehene being drawn in to persuade her to stand aside for Mills to go unopposed. Obviously, in spite of their palm wine talk and their verbal swagger, those who genuinely support him would rather he stood unopposed, because they know that is the only sure way of ensuring he wins congress. Their panic is obvious, however hard they try to mask it.

No matter the advantages of incumbency and the public declarations of support by ministers and constituency activists/executives, nothing can be taken for granted because this is a secret ballot and no one can predict how each delegate will vote in the privacy of his booth, public and private assurances notwithstanding. Kofi Adams insists that some pro-Mills elements come to them ‘nicodemously’ and pledge their support after their public declarations for Mills, and then wipe their mouths quietly and start hollering publicly for Mills. ‘Nothing personal, madam’, they must have crooned soothingly to her (if Adams’ effusions are anything to go by). ‘You must understand we have jobs to keep and stomachs to fill, so you don’t worry-we are solidly behind you’. Human nature being what it is, it is plausible. Those organising congress had better make provision for extra portable toilets and standby ambulances, because there could be a lot of diarrhoea and heart attacks in the hall when the results are announced. This is politics-as unpredictable as football matches. President Mills would be naive in assuming that there is no Brutus in Caesar’s circles. But the president has been even more politically naive in ignoring the Konadu ‘threat’ when it reared its head a long time ago, albeit in a subtle fashion, and in this he has displayed an appalling lack of political nous and sharp antennae for spotting trouble ahead and neutralising it. He cannot say he did not see it coming, and if he did not, it calls into question his political judgment. The early day FONKAR noises, coupled with her silence and topped with JJ’s carping and booming literally from Day One of his presidency should have alerted him.

Politics is like a game of chess, and the president, knowing, or having reason to know, of this imminent threat, should have made his moves much earlier. Everyone has a price, and the president should have found a way of accommodating the Rawlingses and staving off the Konadu challenge. It may have been by way of meeting some of Rawlings’ noises one way or the other. It may sound like a Machiavellian breach of holding on to what you believe to be right, but I call it having a shrewd nose for the harsh reality of surviving in the political jungle-and it a jungle out there. Annoying and irritating as he may be, Rawlings is a significant player in the NDC and Mills had to find a way of containing or accommodating him. Sometimes you have to hold your nose and dine with the devil in order to survive. It is plausible that nothing would have pleased the Rawlingses, given the school of thought that Konadu’s candidacy was hatched a long time ago and this explained Rawlings’ carping from Day One. But that only remains a school of thought and nothing more.

In any event, the president has to deal with the reality of his situation. It is extremely unlikely that having come this far, Konadu will pull out even if she wanted to, because she would lose face. The president has every right to a few sleepless nights, because no one can predict any accuracy what will happen in the privacy of the booth. Political history worldwide is replete with election upsets against all the odds and predictions. Mills will have noted Accra Hearts of Oak’s famous saying ‘Never say die until all the bones are rotten’.

And until the congress votes are tallied and the results are announced, the president cannot take anything for granted. If he is going to win, he had better win by a landslide in order to completely bury the former first lady and her husband and maintain control of the party. A simple win will give her significant leverage in the party and she will continue giving him migraines. And if she beats him, he is clearly better off resigning and allowing his vice to complete the party’s term of office, else he will become a complete lame duck president. And he will have no one to blame but himself, for not being savvy enough to recognise a difficulty from afar and neutralising it.