Global Warming; a not so simple Problem

Excellency,

By the time this letter appears on the internet His Excellency’ mind would be focused on the Global Climate Summit in Copenhagen. This should not be surprising, given Ghana’s track record in participation at previous conferences and other meetings on the subject. The fact that Ghana ratified the Kyoto Protocol in March 2005 is also of relevance, not forgetting the numerous officials, scholars and activists on the subject of climate change that the nation has produced – past and present.

Without doubt, climate change and its consequences have remained a global issue of the highest order and urgency, according to the results of several international surveys.

At issue in Copenhagen is whether there will be a unanimous commitment to reduce global warming by two degrees (Celsius). For the first time the yardstick for success is no longer a mere agreement on climate change but a politically binding decision to be translated into action beginning within months after the summit.

That there is climate change is not disputable among scientists. The basis is available scientific evidence resulting from analysis of data collected over a long period of time.

What’s also disputed is the cause of observed climate change (leading to global warming). Concerned scientists are convinced that based on all available data and the tools available to analyze such data, the conclusion can be drawn that the observed climate change can be attributed to human activity (i.e. human-caused). The other group of scientists contend that there is not enough convincing proof of evidence to draw the foregoing conclusion, i.e. that climate change is the result of human activity.

Industrial nations are being required to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by 25 to 40 percent in comparison to their 1990 levels. The EU has offered a 20 percent reduction; with an option to augment the cuts 30 percent when (and only if) other bigger nations make similar declarations. For Germany which has ambitious unilateral limits, the end result could be 40 percent reduction.

To make the background even more complex, just a few weeks ago it was announced that developing countries had ‘misspent’ funds meant for projects to mitigate the effects of climate change.

In a world where China (with 21,0%), US (20,1%), Russia (5,6%) and Japan (4,2%), together are currently responsible for over 50% of global carbon dioxide emissions, it is not difficult to understand calls from developing countries (like India) aspiring to higher levels of industrialization backing the raising of emissions reduction targets for their European and other highly industrialized colleagues. The most industrialized nations might, in contrast, play poker with equal emissions reductions targets for all.

It is interesting how the leading developing countries are preparing for Copenhagen. Lately, China has succeeded in managing to position itself as an environment-friendly country, with a huge deployment of solar and wind energy facilities. The goal is to increase the component of renewable energies in the national energy generation mix to about 15% in 2020. Just the week before, Beijing announced an ambitious plan to reduce (by the year 2020) the CO2 emissions per unit GDP by 45 percent compared to the level in 2005. Nevertheless, China will remain the world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gases for a long time to come.

India’s government has on the other hand refrained from making any commitments. Internally, that nation has also demonstrated efforts to increase funding for solar energy and energy efficiency projects. India is targeting a 24 percent reduction in CO2 emissions per unit of GDP levels (between the years 2005 and 2020). The Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh will be calling for more access to technologies developed in the industrialized countries. This is expected to be made a precondition to India signing any commitment resulting from the summit.

The most important fact for Africa is that for the first time, the continent will be presenting a quantum of minimal funding ($ 67 billion to be specific) to help the continent mitigate the cost of damages attributable to climate change. The Ethiopian Head of State, Meles Zenawi, will be presenting the case for the 53 countries.

And what if after all, there is no convincing evidence that climate change (global warming) its consequences are not attributable to human activity? Why this question?

Were the data and ABC correct?

The row over the leak of email exchanges between colleagues at the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and their peers around the world, appearing on the internet along with other documents has created a heated debate amongst the global pool of experts. The sceptics are challenging the veracity of the claims made by the ‘convinced’ in not only the data but also analyses (A), basic assumptions (B) as well conclusions (C) drawn. Without making all available data accessible, the sceptics contend, the global panic over the role of human activity in causing catastrophes and imminent disaster for the planet under a do-nothing scenario, all remain at best ‘a hoax’.

The fact that Ghana is an aspiring oil producer, with huge export revenues at stake and the existence of an influential global fossil fuel lobby should not make key decision makers lose sight of the colossal damage and future environmental and economic risks currently forecast for the continent under a model where such catastrophes can indeed be attributed to climate change. The caveat remains; given the current data, analysis and reasoning are not flawed.

Some noted global experts have exhibited caution. "This is completely new science, and of course when you do new science things are uncertain," says Professor Mojib Latif.

Nobel laureate and IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the UN climate science body’s head, Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, has said the matter cannot be swept "under the carpet", calling for clarity.

Akokoraaba Adansi Pipim

Akokoraaba Adansi Pipim is the pen name of a Hamburg-based ICT for Development (ICT4D) consultant and entrepreneur. He is Co-Founder and Director of an IT education initiative for Africa, with Ghana as pilot country. He earned his MBA (International Strategic Management) from Germany’s HHL. Prior to that, he had obtained his MS in exploration geophysics and acquired several years of international working experience, including World Bank projects.