South Africa is currently at a crossroads after an election that has left the ruling ANC dumbfounded and politically redundant. The nation, for the first time in its history, has witnessed a decline in the fortunes of the ANC after 30 years of rule. The election in South Africa presents a rather complex situation, and navigating the issues is even more complicated considering the volatility of the polity.

The ruling class has enjoyed the support of South Africans mainly because of its struggles before, during, and after the apartheid regime. As time went by, it became increasingly clear that the ANC's disposition allowed mismanagement, corruption, and a lack of accountability to erode the gains they had made in the past years. And there was no reason to believe that in the near future, the ANC would fall short of a majority in parliament or need the support of some political party to form a coalition.

The woes of the ANC can be understood as self-inflicted by the management of the party at the national level. Right from the expulsion of Julius Malema in 2012 to the suspension of Jacob Zuma in January 2024, it signaled a crescendo of the lack of cohesion within the ruling class and marked the watershed of the ANC’s decline.

The persona of Zuma and the influence he wields should not have been underestimated for any reason. Looking at his historicity, he is noted as one who has been through the trenches as a former anti-apartheid activist, a member of the uMkhonto we Sizwe (a paramilitary arm of the ANC), a former national chairperson of the ANC, a Deputy President of South Africa under the ANC, and subsequently, the President of South Africa. These are testaments to the fact that he has a constituency under his belt.

Zuma is Zulu from Kwazulu Natal. The Zulus are estimated to be around 14 million, which is almost 30 percent of the South African population. With his level of influence in the ANC and South Africa, it was a danger to see him throw his weight behind the MK party.

Political analysts continue to pontificate on the reasons that occasioned his defection to the MK Party, and this is what you need to know. Zuma is currently under trial for corruption-related charges, money laundering, racketeering, and tax evasion, among others. Some suggest that his decision to abandon the ANC was a calculated attempt at weakening their strength in the Zulu areas, especially his home region, and ensuring they fall short of the required number of seats to form a parliamentary majority. The South African system of electing a government is somewhat different from other countries.

They first elect parliamentarians, who, in turn, vote for who becomes president. That system is similar to the Ghanaian system of electing a speaker of Parliament. In this event, the leading political parties decide to nominate persons they deem suitable for the office, as seen in the recent cases of Rt. Hon. Bagbin and Art. Hon. Mike Oquaye.

Further to this, Zuma will be looking at having a place on the negotiation table and making demands, which among them will include the discontinuation of his trial and the resignation of Cyril Ramaphosa. The EFF, on the other hand, will consider a similar approach should they decide to form a coalition with the ANC.

Aside from the obvious reasons of corruption, lack of transparency, and disregard for the constitution and general well-being of the South African population, political analysts also point to religious factors and ethnicity as major causes of the dwindling fortunes of the ANC. After COVID, it took close to two years before the government could lift the ban on religious gatherings, which incurred the wrath of the religious group.

The mosaic of ethnicity has allowed the majority of Zulus to believe that voting against the ANC will engender a conversation that will last until the end of Zuma’s trial. Whatever the reasons are, the ANC are the big losers in this election and will only need a more diplomatic approach to ensuring a future coalition that is devoid of personal interests but rather one that reflects the aspirations of the people of South Africa.