Next NPP Presidential Candidate II

In my previous article (Ghanaweb.com; Feature Article, Monday November 27, 2006) I argued that for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) to win the 2008 presidential elections, the Party would have to come out with a candidate from the Greater Accra Region and specifically one from the Ga-Adanbge group. I based my argument on the geographical distribution of Ghanaians’ choice of presidents/prime minister in the past.

A lot of people reacted that I was being tribal in my judgment. Some went to the extent of calling me Tribal Politician. It is unfortunate that such people came to that conclusion. Others felt that I failed to consider experience as a factor in choosing a presidential candidate. It is the position of this writes up that even though all politicians talk about it experience had rarely factored well in Ghanaians’ choice of a president/prime minister. Experience is defined here as a politician who had either been elected or appointed to public office One has to go back to the first general elections held in 1950 when the Colonial Administration decided to hand over government business to the indigenes. Nkrumah whose only known life experience was being a part-time lecturer in Negro History at the University of Pennsylvania, USA (1939-1945) and then became a political activist was chosen over Busia, who had served as a District Commissioner from 1942 to 1949. In 1959 as leader of the opposition against Nkrumah, Busia felt his life threatened and fled the country. He became Professor of Sociology and Culture at the University of Leiden in The Hague, Netherlands and later a Senior Member of St. Anthony's College, University of Oxford, 1961 - 1966 In 1969 Ghanaians elected Professor Busia whose colonial experience had not been replenished as the Prime Minister over Afro Gbede who had held the position of Finance Minister in the Nkrumah administration. Gbedema held a national position compared to Busia’s local government experience.

Furthermore, Dr. Hilla Limann became President in 1979 instead of Victor Owusu who had been both Attorney General and Minister of Foreign Affairs all in the Busia administration. Limann was a carreer diplomat and by calculation served under Victor Owusu. Professor Adu Boahene, a seasoned politician known for his stand against Kutu Acheampong’s Union Government and also broke the “Culture of Silence” was by passed by Ghanaians for Rawlings, who had never stood for an election, to become president in 1992. Adu Buahen had been elected two times in 1969 and 1979 to Ghana/s parliament (This writes up is not considering military rule).

The classic example to support the position that Ghanaians do not consider experience in their choice of president is the election of John Agyekum Kuffour (JAK) as president in 2000 instead of Professor John Atta-Mills who was then the sitting Vice-President of Ghana. At that time JAK’s only known experience was when he was appointed as the Deputy Foreign Minister in the Busia’s 1969-1972 administration.

Exceptions to these came in 1956, 1996 and 2004 when Nkrumah, Rawlings and JAK respectively were chosen probably based on their experiences. They were all incubents and especially in the case of Rawlings and Kuffour Ghanaians felt it was their last chance so they should be given the mandate.

If experience is a factor then all the aspiring NPP presidential candidates should quit the race and leave Vice-President Aliu Mahama to fight it out with NDC’s Atta-Mills who had also got similar experience. Better still NPP should go for Peter Ala Adjetey who as Speaker of Parliament was sworn into office as president when both President Kuffour and Vice-President Aliu were out of the country at the same time.

It must be noted that Ghanaians had been voting along party lines for either Nkrumah or Busia’s tradition. Nkrumah’s Convention Peoples Party (CPP) had successfully identified itself with the “veranda boys” and continued to win elections. Busia’s Progress Party (PP) won a landslide victory in 1969 because Ghanaians believed that he was the automatic alternative to Nkrumah whose regime had been overthrown in a military/police coup detat in February 1966. Moreso the CPP had been proscribed as a political party by the ruling military government – National Liberation Council – and most of its members were either in jail or had been politically bruised.

After the 1956 elections both the CPP and the UP/PP (United Party) never met in direct confrontation with a neutral observer until 1979 when the ruling military government of the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC) supervised elections of that year. The CPP’s People National Party (PNP) took advantage of a division in the UP’s Popular Front Party (PFP) and won 71 of the 140 seats in Parliament and Limann defeated Victor Owusu in a presidential run-off.

The next general election was in 1992. The CPP had been weakened by in-fighting followed by disintergration. The Party did not put up a fight as it used to be. In its stead came the NDC, a congrumeration of all parties including vestigies of the CPP except the UP and a by-product of the military government – Provinsional National Defence Council. The UP’s NPP lost the preceeding elections and came back to power in 2000 and won the 2004 elections in addition.

Thus 2008 brings Ghana back to the 1979 situation whereby the two dominant political parties, NDC and NPP, have had the chance of ruling the country for eight years each. It is not going to be a matter of “it’s my turn” rather “ let’s do it all over again”. NDC has realized this and has therefore positioned itself appropriately. Going by the 2004 election results, one could see that NDC is capitalizing on its strength in the North, Volta Region and its relative strong presence in the Greater Accra Region and has moved to the Central Region, dangling the presidency to the people for their votes. In so doing they have made sure they have some presence in the Brong Ahafo Region with some incursions into the Ashanti Region. What is happenning is that NDC is “boxing” NPP inside the country and to use the words of General Collin Powell of USA “to cut it and kill it”.

It is this NDC’s political expediency that NPP has to take into consideration in selecting its presidential candidate. NPP has to find a way out of the box into which NDC is trying to nail it. By picking a candidate from Greater Accra Region, NPP would cut through NDC’s strategy and catch them off guard. NDC’s strategy did not work in both 2000 and 2004. Does it mean it will not work in 2008? It must be noted that in each election Prof Mills hovered around 44% of votes published indicating that he would only need to add some 7% to become president.

In sum, Ghanaians have not selected their presidents/prime minister based on experience. Where they did the candidates were incubents. In 2008 incubency would not be a factor as against the marketing ability of a party. NDC has positioned itself to project an image of a national party by attempting to encircle NPP and confine them into the center of the country. NPP can counter this attack by picking up a presidential candidate outside its traditional stronghold. Greater Accra Region seems more appropriate since they have the numbers to offset any gains NDC hopes to win from the Central Region. Such a move woul cut NDC’s head as in the case of a proverbial snake and render its body useless.

According to Nana Amma Obenewaa “Opinions are not absolute fact, and my opinion may not have any bearing on future national events.”