Predicting a Difficult Election For NPP in 2008

A President and his ruling party all but give up on its signature slogan of zero tolerance for corruption and the electoral promise of creating jobs for the youth. The cost of living continues to rise beyond the ability of most Ghanaians to cope with, rising crude oil prices and falling cocoa production are blamed. Some major indicators of the health of the economy are in bad shape. The Ghana Stock Exchange regarded as the best in the developing World only last year is now regarded as one of the worst in Africa while corruption continues to rise giving Ghana a bad rating by the Transparency International. Some serious minded party members are growing wary of the president?s leadership and are criticizing the party?s leaders from within as having become too arrogant, insensitive, self satisfied, and lost their way. This is likely to spell doom for the party in 2008.

Does it sound familiar? It looks like 2000 all over again. The NDC then, having been in power for that long, virtually admitted in the face of allegations of corruption, rising cost of living, unemployment, and rising crude oil prices, among others that they were at their wits end and had no fresh ideas to push the nation forward. The alternative of voting NPP looked so refreshing in 2000 then. The Danquah-Busia tradition had never ruled Ghana except for a brief two year period in the early 1970?s cut short by a guy named Kutu. Besides the NPP claim of being the intellectuals party with the men to deliver was all too appealing to the youth who forms a majority of the registered voters. It came as no surprise therefore that the NPP won in 2000 and won again in 2004 not based on its performance in office in its first term but based on the belief among many Ghanaians that four years was too short to really assess the government and were willing to give it the benefit of the doubt. Ghanaians were simply not prepared to welcome NDC back in 2004. However, 2008 is likely to be different. It is going to be more competitive than ever given the performance or non performance of the ruling NPP. None of the two major political parties (NPP and NDC) can get away with empty promises because the electorate has tasted life under both parties and know the differences between their rhetoric and action. The balance sheet as of now favours the NDC a little but the NPP has two years to turn the tides in their favour. Allegations of corruption in government, fiscal indiscipline and other scandals involving women, and the inability of the President to act firmly against the alleged perpetrators hurts the image and standing of the government and their chances in the next elections. It is worthy of note that the President himself is the center of some of these allegations.

But before the NDC gets too smug about the NPP?s troubles. It is important to note a few facts. First, there is no indication that the Ghanaian voting public hold them in any warm embrace. They (NDC) can?t win by simply watching the NPP self destruct. They need to provide a coherent alternative, which they have not been able to do in a big way since a guy named Rawlings was running for office. Second, there is no movement propelling the NDC like there was in 2000 calling for a fresh hands. There is a lot of pent up feelings calling for a change now but the alternative available is not so attractive and fresh. In 2000 the NPP alternative sounded so fresh and attractive then as explained above but the NDC has not got that advantage now. Besides, the squabbles in the party now is likely to cause its downfall if not well managed. The other day in its regional congress in the Volta region, whilst the chairman called for compromises in solving the problems within the party, the founder of the party called for a confrontation on the same platform. This suggested to me that the differences are perhaps unbridgeable. If the differences persist, It is likely to lead to a break up of the party which will spell doom for its best chance of capturing electoral victory in 2008.

As the party in power, the NPP has the burden of dealing with the problems of the moment. They cannot always blame it on their predecessors as they have been fond of doing. About almost six years in office is a good time to roll down their sleeves to get Ghana back to work and stop the blaming game. The Ghana Stock Exchange is in near shambles now because the people are not investing in it. According to its Acting Director, only about 0.005% of Ghanaians are playing the stocks game. People cannot invest in the Stock Exchange if they are in a hand to mouth situation. People have to have savings before they can invest and J.M. Keynes? theory that savings are a dependent variable of income when a nation?s economy is in a developing stage still holds true. With income levels in Ghana and the rate of unemployment, no wonder you have such a tiny fraction of the populace investing in the Ghana Stock Exchange. It is the responsibility of the ruling government to find a way of fixing the problem. Governance is a serious issue and people with no fresh ideas and practical skills and experience to move the nation forward have no business going into politics. The vision thing is lacking in many Ghanaian politicians. I wonder why politicians do not interview for their jobs just like we all have to do in the corporate world.

If the recent bye election defeats in Asawase and Odododiodo are a precursor of the trend of voting in 2008, then the NPP need to prepare for a difficult election. Come 2008 corruption in government and the President?s inability to deal with it, hotel Kuffour, Gizelle Yacjzi, per diem, unemployment, Anane, Bamba, Edumadze, etc, will all become election issues. If the NPP loses the elections, the party is doomed. It may take them longer that it did between 1972 ? 2000 to regain power. That?s the enormity of the task facing Ghana?s ruling party and its leaders seem oblivious of it. I think that the party leadership needs to put their head together, and put their ears to the ground to listen. I say again, I think they need to prepare for a very difficult election. Not that it?s one that they cannot win or they won?t win, but it is going to be an enormous challenge.

Ben Ofosu-Appiah.
The author is a social and political commentator, and also a corporate trainer based in Tokyo, Japan. He?s written extensively on politics, economics, and society in Africa and Ghana. He welcomes your views, comments, and criticisms. Check the Archives for his older articles.