The NDC Elects its flag-bearer and parliamentary candidates going into the 2024 presidential and parliamentary elections. What are the expectations?

After almost successfully putting in place the complete structure of the party - branch, constituency, regional,, and National executives. Plans are far advanced in electing a flag-bearer and parliamentary candidates for the NDC in May 2023.

Although, it is believed by the rank and file of the party that, there is a presumptive leader in the person of the former President(John Mahama), and as democracy is the spirit and nerves of the party, an election is a way of selecting its flag-bearer. Therefore, the slated month is chosen to conduct elections to elect both the flag-bearer and parliamentary candidates for the 2024 general elections.

What is imperative to note is the choice of a running-mate to partner with John Mahama after the elections. The question however is, will he maintain Prof Nana or he's likely to stick to the status quo(as the NDC is famously known for not repeating its party running-mates)?

On 4/9/2000, Prof Mills as then vice-president picked Mr.. Martin Hamidu as his running-mate run-up to the 2000 presidential election. This was confirmed by the then General Secretary Ahaji Hudu Yahaya. Who had minced no words to have said that, Prof Mills indeed exercised his rights in consultation with the party’s National Executive Committee to choose Mr.. Martin Hamidu as his running-mate. However, the NDC which was an incumbent lost the presidential election to Mr. John Agyakum Kufour of the NPP.

Lawyer Mohammed Mumuni who in 2004 left parliament as a member of Parliament for Kumbungu, was picked by Prof Mills as a running-mate to partner on the ticket of the opposition National Democratic Congress to face HE John Agyakum Kufour, as the incumbent president. Again, the Prof Mills/Lawyer Mumuni ticket lost the presidential election in 2004.

Point well noted therefore was that; President Mills changed Mr. Martin Hamidu as a northerner(from Upper East Region) and replaced him with Lawyer Mohammed Mumun as a northerner(from Northern Region). Both Northerners but in different regions and religions.

In all of Prof Mills's choices, the consideration was particularly a northerner, not just their religious affliction. The intention was a South-North ticket.

"On 9th April 2008, John Dramani Mahama is the running mate of Professor John Atta Mills, flag bearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), for the upcoming 2008 elections, Party officials confirmed on Wednesday." Mr. Elvis Afriyie-Ankrah, Deputy General Secretary of the NDC, told journalists that the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the Party unanimously endorsed Mr.. Mahama, MP for Bole-Bamboi.

With the Mills/Mahama ticket, the NDC won the Presidential election and formed the next government in 2009.

What is important to note is that; the NDC has consistently been changing running-mates from one Presidential election to another. Why? It is based on the party's strategies because, after every election,, they do a review(what was right and what was wrong in their choices of running-mates). Thus, what impact did that combination of a running-mate choice made on the election? This culminates in so many reasons - finances, communication, competence, votes and ultimately winning.

The question herein is, will the flag-bearer(John Mahama) after 13th May 2023, maintain or change his running-mate?

What are the probabilities and possibilities?

We all are informed about the persistent changes the NDC makes over running-mates going into elections. Every election comes with its strategies. Tailoring these strategies means working for possible goal achievement. Flag-bearer & running-mate combination is a foresightedness to hinge on.

And so, in my opinion, the probability of the NDC flag-bearer changing a running-mate going into 2024 is high and the possibility is also high. Unless the NDC convention going into the next election is exceptional.

Please, read with a fair mind as I present my reasons. Don't tilt it on a weird understanding.

Firstly, consideration of continuity must be a key factor in whether to maintain or change. If to go for the former, in the likely event the NDC won, clearly, John Mahama is going for a term. How will that affect the party if by that time his vice-president is weak due to age factor or many Ghanaians by that time are not ready for a female president?

Therefore, serious thinking must go into this. Because, if any one of them should be a challenge, then no need for maintaining her. However, if the flag-bearer is going for a fresh hand, it means that he'll be considering a North/South ticket.

What then will the flag-bearer and the National Executive Committee(NEC) will be considered in the interests of the the rank and file of the party? Of course - competence, unifier, regional balance, funds, results-oriented, and above all a winnable candidate. More importantly, someone,, the party shall start marketing from now to stepping in as a potential flag-bearer after President Mahama's first term in office. This move will not only create unity but will ensure continuity and a victory for the second term for the NDC.

Lucidly, since President Mahama will be leading the party into the 2024 Presidential election, it will be politically unwise to pick a northerner as his running-mate. Therefore, the five Northern regions are automatically out of his choice. Moreover, the Bono and Ahanfo regions where the potential first lady is coming from are also out.

Areas of choice of a fresh running-mate?
In my opinion, the Volta, Northern, and Central regions have had fair representation in the President or Vice-president positions. The Central region has benefited mostly when it comes to the Vice-presidents. The Volta region has also benefited the presidency for a very long time under the PNDC and the NDC regimes.

Therefore, I will suggest Western, Greater, and Ashanti regions. Note therefore that I have omitted the Eastern region deliberately because the current President even though from a different political party is coming from there. It will however be unwise for the NDC to pick a running mate from there now. It will cause the party dearly if the next NDC President has ended his term and such a person is to continue. Ghanaians may not want to pick someone from the Eastern region within a such a short period to be President again.

My reasons for a person from Western:
The NDC is becoming very strong in this region, although it is considered a swing region. Any running mate from this region is going to be a gold mine for the NDC. Also, the fact that is the first time under the Fourth Republic a political party in several years is picking a person very close to the Presidency after Ghana's first President Dr.. Kwame Nkrumah from the Western region. Moreover, this region is known for its contribution to natural resources and is a key contributor to cocoa production in this country for foreign exchange.

Greater Accra is another swing region. And so, will it help the NDC in picking a running mate from this region? In my opinion yes but not now. Maybe, going into future Presidential elections. Will withhold my reasons for now.

Another region is the Ashanti region. However, will the party get someone from there to significantly make an impact? Certainly not. It will be very difficult for the NDC to penetrate the region simply because of a choice of running mate from there. Truth must be told. This region is predominantly NPP. For any party to focus so much on winning an election in the Ashanti region because of at least securing about 35% - 40% votes is highly impossible.

Therefore, if there has to be a choice from any of the aforementioned three regions, much focus must be on the Western region. The chances are clearer and doable for the NDC in this region.

As it stands, I know there are deliberations at the decision-making level of the NDC considering who the presumptive leader chooses as his next running-mate, this post is but my opinion and an entitlement which everyone is entitled to.