Why the NPP can and must win in 2008

The year 2006 is fast drawing to a close and 2007 will be upon us in the twinkle of an eye. This is the foundation year for the 2008 elections and all the political parties are positioning themselves to take over from President Kufuor’s administration. The NDC are struggling to rid themselves of the perceived unelectablility of JEA Mills and are throwing the likes of Dr. Ekwow Spio-Garbrah and Eddie Annan into the fray. There was a debate on the radio on the other day where a contributor referred to Dr. Mills as an unsaleable product of the NDC and the need to try a new product - Spio-Garbrah. The latter has also gone into an insulting mood, rubbishing his former boss, Dr. Mills. Be that as it may, the NDC are seriously gearing themselves for power and that is the reason why the NPP cannot be disinterested bystanders.

The year 2008 is very crucial in terms of Ghana’s economic stability and Ghana needs a government that will build on the foundations laid from 2001-2008. There is no doubt in my mind that the foundation for Ghana’s economic revival has been laid by President Kufuor’s administration.

I do not wish to talk about the economic policies from 2001 when the President assumed office. His performance and that of his government was settled in the 2004 elections when Ghanaians voted to give his administration four more years to manage the economy. I intend to start from 2004 onwards which I have termed "work in progress" and argue for a case of “why fix it if it is not broken”

My first emphasis is on macroeconomic stability programme of the government aimed a consolidating the gains of the pre-2004 years. The year 2005 saw a rise in real GDP growth rate to 5.9% and a decline in inflation to 14.8%. In 2006 headline inflation has dropped to 10.5% and the GDP growth rate of 6.2%. These macroeconomic policies continued to strengthen the country's foreign reserves to cover 4 months of import. The overall budget deficit at the need of 2004 was 3.2% and the 2005 budget deficit reached a record low of 2.0%, exceeding the target of 2.2% set at the beginning of the year. The downward trend in inflation is also matched with an equal downward trend in interest rates. The average interest rate on the 91-day treasury bill instrument dropped from 17.1% in 2004 to 11.8% in 2005and the inter bank weighted average rate dropped from 16 to 10%. Against these downward trends, world oil price is rising [$60 per barrel in 2005 and $80 per barrel in 2006]. This macro-economic stability is proving solid against the ripples of the world economy shake-ups, especially in the petroleum price increases.

I will leave the statistics here and begin to consider what these mean in real terms to the economy of Ghana. Both the November 2005 and 2006 budgets have focussed on Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy which emphasises on “accelerated growth as a means of wealth creation, poverty reduction and equitable social development” What this means in ordinary person’s language is putting money in the pockets of people who under normal circumstances may not be able to create wealth while at the same time not compromising on social and infrastructural development.

As you may be aware, Ghana is one of the countries benefiting from the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) involving irrevocable debt cancellation owed the IMF, World Bank and African Development Bank. The relief, which comes into effect this year, means the current levels on investment would be augmented to accelerate the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals set by the government for 2015. Currently external debt servicing alone accounts for 2,949 billion ($141 million). The actual debt serving would have been $406million but for the HIPC Initiative of President Kufuor’s administration. The savings from this enhanced HIPC debt relief fund is now responsible for the numerous poverty alleviation programmes and projects which litter the country. A total of 265billion cedis has been released by the government out of the HIPC Funds for human resource development, in the upgrading 174 SSS, as subsidy for the BECE, refurbishment of Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital and sanitation improvement and water supply in the districts. Continuous prudent management of the economy this year and onwards means the savings made from the MDRI year on year will be the key to Ghana's economic revival. This is not to mention the Millennium Challenge Account of $547million which is outside the precincts of our budget.

I have referred to the sound economic policies of the NPP government as “work in progress” and it has not by any means reached the unassailable limits of even the Asian Tigers let alone the other emerging economic giants of Africa. The economy has been managed with such care and uptight hold on public spending that inflation has been kept to the minimum and interest rates are descending at an unprecedented rate. This is where we as Ghanaians dare not deny the NPP the opportunity to continue this job. The goodwill and the legacy for the NPP to play on are enormous.

Besides the legacy of the economy, the government has laid firm foundations for educational and health reforms as well as micro-financing aimed at “putting money into people’s pockets” Hon. Moses Asaga of the NDC was on record saying that we should give praise where it is due, referring to the government’s successful micro-financing plan. All too often we experience change of government and the abandonment of on going policies and plans. We as Ghanaians must learn that the heights the Asian Tigers reached and kept were attained only by stability of administration over long periods of time. The NPP government has all the intentions of faithful nation builders. It is up to Ghanaians to recognise this dispassionately and allow the administration to succeed itself in order to continue the good work.

It is also up to the Party to eschew the principles of self denying ordinance and self control. To make it appealing for people to vote them back in power, it requires the discipline with which it organised itself in opposition to state an undeniable case to Ghanaians that enabled them to win in 2001. Ghanaians dare not return to the boom bust principles of the NDC which will do nothing but return Ghana another 20 years into the economic doldrums. With the NPP, it is a case of buy one get two or more free. It is not only economic revival it has sold to Ghanaians but also good governance, transparency of government, freedom of speech and tolerance, all summed up in the principle of Rule of Law. It will be very difficult for Ghanaians to return to a dispensation where Rule of Law is neither respected nor practised but the opposition has an undeniable weapon of sowing a seed of perceived corruption of government officials in the minds of the people. This weapon has to be dealt with by ensuring that the anti corruption bodies and laws set up and passed respectively and nurtured by the government must be given the resources and impetus to root out this age old social canker. Again the government must learn to manage information and tell its story well. In politics it is not the good of what you do but what you do and say.

The NPP cannot also afford to treat the public as irrelevant bystanders when it comes to the race of who succeeds President Kufuor. While the President, no doubt, is getting on the business of governing the nation, trotting the globe, signing contracts and negotiating for financial deals to keep Ghana’s fragile economy stronger, the NPP seems to be squabbling on who will become the next presidential aspirant. The NPP as a political party must surely have a succession plan and this is the time that plan has to kick in. Yes, the NPP is a true democratic party, unlike its opponents who meet in smoke filled rooms and ritually select leaders and raise hands in public to endorse in popular acclamations The NPP will use its democratic tenets to choose the next leader. However it must also realise that the public is becoming fed up with the spurious overflow of numbers of contestants, speculations, conspiracy theories and the press scoops which the party is doing nothing about. We as Ghanaians have come too far to return. The NPP must set a pace so that all the other political parties will re-organise them selves in order to become suitable or attractive to govern. In UK the Labour Party had to learn from the liberal economic policies of the Conservative Party. They did this by re-branding themselves under Tony Blair in order to return to power. The NDC currently is tagged with violence and the undemocratic tendencies of its founders and there is no internal party dynamics to foster a free flow of policies and ideas which will make them attractive to govern. Its dictatorship roots from the PNDC never deserted them and they are finding it all too hard to rid themselves of it. The DFP is still a forming foetus and the CPP has passed its sell by date. This leaves the NPP in a very attractive position and the only party that can destroy the NPP is NPP itself.

The Party has to bear in mind the unhealthy lessons from the last NPP Parliamentary primaries in which the party had to tackle the issue of financial inducements that were “supposedly” given to certain members with voting rights to compromise their intentions. This had, in a way, demonstrated a clear lack of effective constitutional and party structures to counter the undemocratic tendencies/incidents that marred our democratic and noble credentials and which resulted in the deselecting of nine (9) Parliamentary Committee Chairpersons, most of whom had impeccable track record in the party and in parliament in the Ashanti Region alone.

In view of the foregoing, the most important lesson is to ensure that undue financial incentives are not allowed to compromise the noble and democratic aspirations. Aspiring candidates who are found to be manipulating the democratic process by monetary or other means must be dealt with severely, with the imposition of appropriate sanctions, such as disqualification, through the party’s disciplinary process. This would send a strong and clear message to would-be abusers of the process.

The biggest legacy that any NPP presidential aspirant will have will be that of the achievement of President Kufuor’s administration. If all the ministers and government officials, who are doing their bits to help the administration perform, decide to resign in 2007 to carry on with their own campaign, there will be very little the government can do in this foundation year. The best campaign gift for the next NPP flag bearer will be a government on a full throttle, seeking a mandate to “carry on the good work”.

The ANC of South Africa has managed to maintain a stranglehold on the South African administration because at every point in time there is a succession plan. For example, even from a distance one can say that Cyril Ramaphosa’s name emerges as a future leader because the plan is clearly there.

Talking about succession plan, there can be none if the President has no say in it. The obvious presumption is for him to stay neutral and not take a position. Whatever the situation, he needs to have a successor who he can work closely with a degree of cooperation on economic policy, good governance, tolerance, social programmes in health and education as well as law and order.

It is my hope that the leadership of NPP would give serious attention and consideration to the suggestions about developing a succession plan to avoid this presidential aspiration becoming the greatest obstacle to the future progress of the party in ruling Ghana. As they say it is opposition parties that win elections, it is the incumbents that lose it. ASEM SEBE

Long live Ghana