Premature deaths annually from cardiovascular disease are expected to rise from 5.9 million in 2013 to 7.8 million by 2025 worldwide, if the current trends for hypertension, tobacco smoking, diabetes, and obesity continue.

As a result many United Nations member states may not be able to meet targets set in 2013 as part of a global action plan to address non-communicable diseases, which includes reducing premature deaths from cardiovascular disease by 25 per cent by 2025.

The UN target is achievable for some countries, including the United States, but only by addressing trends related to risk factors such as high blood pressure, tobacco use, obesity, and diabetes.

A study conducted by a global collaborative network of researchers led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington and copied to the Ghana News Agency in Accra said.

Described as the first IHME study to forecast health trends, the study is titled: “Estimates of global and regional premature cardiovascular mortality in 2025.”

Cardiovascular diseases, the leading cause of premature death in the world, include heart attacks, strokes, and other heart and circulatory diseases.

The study noted that if the current trends continue, many of the world’s most populous countries including China, India, Russia, Mexico, and Ethiopia, would see no improvement in premature mortality due to heart disease and stroke.

Premature deaths from cardiovascular disease would also rise in some countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.

Countries such as the US, Brazil, and South Africa would see declines in premature mortality from cardiovascular disease but not enough to meet the UN goal of a 25 per cent reduction.

Southeast Asia, East Asia, and South Asia would account for 60 per cent of these deaths.

Dr Gregory Roth, Assistant Professor at IHME and the Division of Cardiology at the University of Washington said: “We can clearly see what needs to be done over the next decade to reduce cardiovascular death worldwide.

“To have the greatest impact, we need to focus on the leading risk factors in each country.

“For most, that means healthier diets, more exercise, quitting tobacco, and less binge drinking of alcohol.

“But it also means investing in high-quality primary care and hospitals because many treatments for heart disease work well and can make a real difference,” he added.

Researchers for the study noted that reducing hypertension prevalence would yield the greatest benefit in decreasing premature mortality from cardiovascular disease in most countries globally, followed by less tobacco smoking, but, for a smaller group of countries, reducing obesity would have the greatest impact.

Smoking reductions would have the greatest impact for men in the Middle East and North Africa, which includes Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Jordan whilst men in Central sub-Saharan Africa; and women in Western Europe and the high-income Asia Pacific region.

Globally, the outlook for premature mortality would change dramatically if targets for all the risk factors studied are met, but despite the projected decrease in the number of deaths globally, many countries will still not meet the 25 per cent reduction target.

“Change will vary by region if these risk factor targets are all met, ranging from an increase of one per cent for men in Central sub-Saharan Africa, which includes countries such as Angola and the Central African Republic, to as much as a 53 per cent reduction for women in East Asia, which includes countries such as China and North Korea,” the study added.

The study revealed that regional variation in high middle and low income countries even in addressing hypertension, diabetes, smoking, and obesity, country-specific approaches will be most effective in reducing premature mortality from cardiovascular disease.

IHME Director Dr Christopher Murray concluded that “Countries need to select policies focused on both prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease and using the best available data now can help us make decisions that will impact future trends”.