He who thinketh he leadeth and hath no one following him is only taking a walk. Thus, if one considers oneself a leader, one must be able to command a following.

At the NPP show, it was tempting to say that Agyarko and Arthur Kennedy only managed a following when their vehicles were being driven out of the traffic-jammed conference location, where they managed to get a long following of vehicles inadvertently behind theirs.

Extremely worrying if, as a politician, your only opportunity of attracting a following is to be in the lead of a traffic jam.

That aside, the NPP annual conference at the weekend was a strong taste of what to expect after August when the presidential candidate contest is expected to take place.

The posters, banners, placards, orchestrated bands of cheerleaders made the rally extra exciting.

Yet, how much of a scientific indication of a person"s chances could be derived from this? Or was it all part of a psychological warfare?

In his celebrated book, The Art of Leadership, Max DePree argues that the first responsibility of a leader is to define reality.

The reality as aptly put by President Kufuor, is not what your money can get others to say about you, but how your leadership qualities can pull others towards you. Leadership is practiced not so much in staged shows as in attitude and in actions.

The theme of the NPP Koforidua convention was 'Moving forward in unity.’ Was that opportunity lost on many? The words of Jesse Jackson may serve the NPP well: "Leadership has a harder job to do than just choose sides. It must bring sides together.”

And, when President Kufuor warned the aspiring aspirants that to engage in negative propaganda against the others disqualifies the person as the kind of leader the party or country needs, the President was taking a leaf from MaxDePee’s book, when the chairman emeritus of Herman Miller wrote, “Leaders don’t inflict pain. They bear pain.”

In Qanawu’s view, Koforidua was an opportunity for the various dreamers to test their natural support within the party rather than to seek to ‘influence’ that by creating a public impression of their popularity.

The noise outside the hall was not as indicative as ones popularity inside the hall, where the over thousand delegates gathered. There were under-18s from Madina wearing Kwabena Agyapong for President T-shirts. The presidential hopefuls would have done well to measure the decibels of the applause and cheers they each received when Lord Commey announced them at the hall.

They should measure that against the noise that greeted them when they were announced on the rally ground. If you were able to receive loud acknowledgements both in the hall and at the rally then you can begin to entertain the thought that you are both popular with the party executives and with the rank and file.

The next test is your popularity with the general electorate. Saturday, during a series of interviews with Eastern FM, Citi FM and Adom FM, Qanawu added his voice to the view that we are not likely to have more than ten contesting for the NPP presidential nomination.

Qanawu estimates that to have anything near a credible go at the NPP flagbearership, one would require at least $2 million. He even thinks the number could be as low as eight, which would be quite normal with the NPP since 1992.

The President, a veteran of political campaigns since 1969, gave more authority to this view when he said at the Koforidua rally Sunday that he does not expect more than ten of the sixteen or so names being currently mentioned to file for the flagbearership once nominations are opened.

More on this later… But, the other statement made by the President was on the kind of person he would wish to succeed him. He has been at pains, since November, to get this across and Qanawu believes he should be understood for making his views known on this all-important selection exercise, as strongly argued in today’s editorial of The Statesman.

“The choice is not about who is more knowledgeable or better-resourced than the other. The search is for a leader who appreciates our time-tested traditions and values as a party; a leader who can hold all of us together as a party; a leader who has the humility to hold himself accountable to the party and the nation and above all, a leader who will be acceptable to all Ghanaians,” Kufuor said to the delegates Saturday.

Come Sunday, he went up another notch, returning to a message he gave to the party’s regional executives when they all met at the Maple Leaf Hotel, Achimota, Accra, at the end of November.

There, he reminded the party leaders that the NPP is a conservative party which believes in the concept of serving one’s term and joining that exclusive queue of merit based on experience, loyalty, service and other attributes of leadership.

At the Jackson Park rally grounds President Kufuor could not have put this more emphatically.

He redefined the analysis made previously in The Statesman by Prof Wayo Seini, on the hierarchy of the Danquah-Busia clan, starting with J B Danquah, Busia, R R Amponsah and others.

In the view of the President, in the NPP hall of leadership fame, after the first generation of the R R Amponsahs, came the Kufuor generation, which is now in power.

After him, he believes the generation next in line, in his own words, includes “Nana Akufo-Addo, Hackman Owusu-Agyemang, Yaw Osafo-Maafo and Kwame Addo-Kufuor.”

The second generation on the waiting list, after the Hackman generation, in the words of President Kufuor, has Alan Kyerematen and Dan Botwe, both in their fifties and eager to succeed him.

The President’s platform statement is heavily pregnant with some intriguing twins occupying his political mind.

One of the twinned-implications of his statement was the remarkable absence of his number two, Aliu Mahama. It is easy for people to come to the conclusion that the President’s reference point was age, because all four names mentioned are in their sixties - from Nana at 62 to Kufuor’s own younger brother who will be 67 next July. Thus, one could stretch this list to include, Aliu, 61, and Oquaye, 63.

But, Qanawu is not easily inveigled by the sheer age factor. Well, the President is allowed to indulge in the sin of oversight. But, as The Saturday Statesman showed last week by leaving out Alan Kyerematen in its analysis of the aspiring aspirants, such oversights may have a subconscious layer. In The Statesman’s case, Alan, through his seemingly uncooperative secretary, had repeated that he was not interested in our proposal to feature him, in our analysis of the players. So, though leaving his picture out was not intentional, his uncooperative stance probably explained the oversight.

Normally, ‘protocol’ would have expected the President to mention his Vice’s name first in the order of those he felt were in the next line of leadership. A logical induction may be that the President instinctively does not favour his Vice succeeding him. There are four probable explanations for this immense omission.

One: it was an innocent oversight. Two: it was not a slip after all; the Vice is naturally in that age category even if his name was not mentioned. Three: since the Vice has not ‘declared’ his interest in the succession, the President felt it responsible to leave him out for now. Four: the President does not think the Vice falls within the President’s requirement list for the next NPP flagbearer.

But, there are useful pointers. The President’s definition of leadership subscribes to the notion that leaders manage change, whilst managers control process. He seeks for a true red, white and blue party man to take over after him.

The President believes that the key to successful leadership today is influence, not authority. For those who are checking themselves (as advised by J H Mensah) before they put their names forward, they should at least see how they qualify for the leadership criterion set up above by President, as quoted. It is not about cash. It’s not about being the most intelligent person around. You must have a very deep understanding of or roots connection with the Danquah-Busia clan. Beyond that, your vision, and other attributes must be marketable to the majority of Ghanaians.

The other twin in the womb of what the President said was his clear message that Alan Kyerematen and Dan Botwe have still some way to go before considering themselves ready to lead the party.

This is a big blow to the conventional perception that the Trade Minister is Kufuor’s anointed son. The rumour is that the Castle is split. The Chief of Staff has a softer spot for Paapa Owusu-Ankomah.

The President may see Alan as his darling boy. However, the President has a very mature, experienced, knowledgeable, astute and calculated political mind enough to know that his wish may not necessarily match-up to his own considered requirement criteria of who succeeds him.

The Dan Botwe locomotive is certainly logged up for take-off. Ironically, the Dan Botwe for president agenda seems to have a side agenda which says, ‘anybody but Alan.’ Of course, there are those in and out of the competition who may also have an aside agenda to stop Dan at all cost and so does this certainly apply to other candidates, such as Nana Addo, Yaw, and Addo-Kufuor, as well. The battle may come to these two fifty-somethings working separately to undermine each other’s chances and, eventually, adding their numbers to that of the others.

But, out of the sixteen or so who say they are looking to contest, which ten of them may finally file?

Qanawu has his own list of nine who, in his view, are likely to contest: Aliu Mahama, Addo-Kufuor, Akufo-Addo, Kofi Apraku, Hackman Owusu-Agyemang, Alan Kyerematen, Dan Botwe, Osafo-Maafo and Frimpong Boateng. After April, when the party is expected to meet to fix a date for the presidential primary, Qanawu will come up with his top-five list.

But, if the cheer that met Aliu at the rally was anything to go by, then he has tremendous support in the party. He must be encouraged by it. So must some candidates, notably, Nana Addo, Hackman, Addo-Kufuor, Dan and Yaw. But, a British Prime Minister once remarked: a week is too long in politics. As the President said Sunday, “the campaign has begun.”